SUNNI-SHI’ITE WARS GOING GLOBAL or GOOD…LESS ENEMIES FOR ISRAEL

SUNNI-SHI’ITE WARS GOING GLOBAL

GOOD…LESS ENEMIES FOR ISRAEL

Saudi Arabia garnering support from regional Sunni states to counter encroaching Iranian influence.

Feeling that his back was against the wall as Iranian-backed Shi’ite Houthi forces moved to take over neighboring Yemen, Saudi Arabia has lashed out with its own Sunni coalition, threatening to take the sectarian conflict to a new level.  Reports that the Pakistanis and Egyptians are sending troops and that the Turks are also on board, have set the stage for a major expansion of the regional Sunni-Shi’ite struggle.

Iran said that it would not directly intervene in Yemen, but if it does, what would that mean for the escalation of regional tension? “The Saudi-led GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] intervention in Bahrain, the participation of UAE and Qatar warplanes in the NATO operation against [Libya’s Muammar] Gaddafi, and more recently, the Egyptian bombings against the Islamists in Libya (and an earlier air raid of UAE warplanes from Egyptian territory), all mark enhanced assertiveness by the conservative Sunni states,” Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, a principal research fellow at the Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University and a contributor to The Jerusalem Report, told this paper.

In addition to the Gulf states and Egypt, even Morocco and Sudan are making symbolic contributions to the effort, probably to get on the good side of the Saudis, said Maddy- Weitzman.  The Gulf states have greater capabilities than in the past and recognize that they can’t solely rely on the US for their security anymore, he asserted.  The Sunni states are worried about a US tilt toward Iran as Washington seeks to finalize a nuclear agreement, added Maddy-Weitzman.

David Andrew Weinberg, a specialist on Gulf affairs and a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Post on Thursday that such an invasion puts to the test the new Saudi defense minister, Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the 35-year-old son of King Salman.

“The Gulf states’ contribution to the US-led coalition against Islamic State is pitiful,” said Weinberg, adding that the idea that on top of this commitment the Gulf states are now going to reconquer Yemen, “stretches the imagination.”  Whichever way this war works out, “it won’t go smoothly,” he predicted.

The Egyptians got involved in a Yemen civil wars in the 1960s when then-president Gamal Abdel Nasser backed one side and the Saudis the other, but the fact is that “the Egyptians look at that conflict as their ‘Vietnam’ – a dramatic, drawn-out entanglement that went poorly for them.”  Regarding Yemen’s President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who took refuge in the kingdom on Thursday, Weinberg sees this as a sign of how weak his position really was.

Asked why the Saudis are making such a tremendous military effort to counter the Shi’ite axis in Yemen, but not elsewhere, Weinberg drew attention to a comment by a Saudi security expert, who pointed out that the Arabian Peninsula is a redline for them.  For Riyadh, Iran’s encroachment on Yemen is a much more serious matter than its involvement in Syria.

“The Saudis are trying to orchestrate a united Sunni front against the Shi’ite axis,” added Weinberg, noting that it is even willing to overcome its enmity with the Muslim Brotherhood movement and its state sponsors, Qatar and Turkey, in order to unite Sunni powers.

Oren Adaki, a research analyst of the Arab world at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who closely follows Yemen, told the Post that despite the US’s intelligence and logistical support for the Saudi-led coalition, it is definitely taking a back seat in the conflict.

Hadi’s government had been an important regional counterterrorism partner in the battle against al-Qaida, and the US government could have done much more to prevent what ended up being a Houthi takeover, argued Adaki.  Iran has capitalized on this situation – expanding economic ties with the Houthis and even pledging to provide them with one year’s worth of oil, he said.

“The real problem here is that American inaction on Yemen has sent a message to the entire region to not rely on American power and prestige as they did in years past,” Adaki said.

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King Salman has used summits with leaders of all five Gulf Arab states, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey over the past 10 days to reinforce the need for unity.

Saudi Arabia is asking Sunni Muslim Middle East countries to set aside differences over political Islam and focus on what it sees as more urgent threats from Iran and Islamic State.

Its new monarch, King Salman, has used summits with leaders of all five Gulf Arab states, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey over the past 10 days to reinforce the need for unity and find a way to work around disagreements over the Muslim Brotherhood.

Saudi Arabia's deep-seated mistrust of the Islamist group is unchanged, diplomats say. But King Salman's approach to it is more nuanced than that of his predecessor King Abdullah, who died in January, and may include being more indulgent of allies who allow its members space to operate.

Last year Riyadh, along with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, withdrew its ambassador from Qatar over its links to the Brotherhood.

"The Saudis think maybe, if the Sunnis are on good terms, we can confront this. Salman is trying to consolidate the Sunni world and put differences over the Muslim Brotherhood on the back burner," said an Arab diplomat in the Gulf.

Riyadh's bigger concern is Shi'ite Iran. Its fears about the rising influence of its main regional enemy have grown recently as Tehran's Houthi allies seized swathes of Yemen and its commanders have aided Shi'ite militias fighting in Iraq.

Prospects are also growing of a deal between world powers and Iran on Tehran's disputed nuclear program, which might lift pressure on the Islamic republic. Saudi Arabia has watched nervously as its key ally, the United States, has reached out to pursue an agreement with Tehran.

US Secretary of State John Kerry reassured the Saudis on Thursday that he was seeking no "grand bargain" with Iran, but Riyadh's worries over Washington's long-term commitment to the region underpin its desire for more Arab unity.

LURE OF ISLAMIC STATE

The second overarching concern for Riyadh is Islamic State. IS has called on Saudis to stage attacks inside the kingdom and some of its sympathizers assaulted a Shi'ite village in November, killing eight.

Riyadh fears the group's strong media messaging and appeal to strict Muslim ideology could appeal to disaffected young Saudis and challenge the ruling family's own legitimacy, which partly rests on its religious credentials.

But in seeking broader unity across the Arab world on the issue of political Islam, Saudi Arabia must address a deep regional rift. It runs between Sunni states who accept a Muslim Brotherhood presence, such as Qatar and Turkey, and those such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates who, like Riyadh, describe it as a terrorist organization.

Those differences have come in the way of building a coherent response to regional crises, as attempts to address one problem after another have been diverted into arguments over Islamism.

"Saudi Arabia clearly doesn't want to be open to facing too many battles. IS and Iran are the enemy now, everything else can be put on hold," said a Western diplomat in the Gulf.

Salman's whirlwind of meetings was presented as a chance for the new monarch to discuss events with the region's leaders in greater detail than was possible when they went to Riyadh to pay respects after the death of Abdullah.

But while Salman did not directly push for a new Sunni bloc or lean on states to be more accommodating with those across the Muslim Brotherhood divide, he still opened the possibility of recalibrating relations to allow greater unity.

In his meeting with Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, for instance, he suggested Riyadh might reinvigorate its relations with other countries, an apparent reference to strengthening ties with Turkey, the Arab diplomat said.

But he also reassured Sisi, a close ally of the late Abdullah, that any attempts to undermine Egypt's security from elsewhere represented a red line for Saudi Arabia, and that any new moves Riyadh made would not be at Cairo's expense.

RIVAL IDEOLOGY

Nobody expects big changes to Saudi Arabia's position on the Muslim Brotherhood. The movement represents an ideological threat to Riyadh's dynastic system of rule, and its use of oaths of allegiance and secret meetings are anathema to the Saudis.

The Brotherhood was listed by Riyadh as a terrorist organization a year ago, with membership incurring long prison sentences, and both Western and Arab diplomats, and analysts said there was little prospect its status would change.

But Salman is less concerned than was Abdullah about the Brotherhood's role in other parts of the Middle East, such as in Yemen's Islah party or among Syrian rebel groups.

He is also more willing to allow the Brotherhood a role outside politics, for example by not stopping preachers affiliated to the movement from making public speeches on religious or social issues.

One sign of Salman's more pragmatic approach came during a conference in Mecca last week that brought together top Sunni clerics, including the Saudi grand mufti and the head of Egypt's al-Azhar University, to denounce terrorism.

Informed Saudis noted it was hosted by the Muslim World League, a body set up by Riyadh in the 1960s to build an Islamic bloc against radical secular ideologies, and used in the 1980s to bolster Sunnis against revolutionary Iran.

Under Abdullah, it fell out of favor partly because of its historical relationship with the Brotherhood, but Salman now seems prepared to use it again as an instrument to build Sunni solidarity. One of the delegates it invited was a senior member of a Doha-based group with close ties to the Brotherhood.

The change may partly reflect the personality of Salman, who is less uncompromising than was Abdullah, say Gulf insiders, and who is more willing to use any tools at his disposal to counter bigger threats.

All the leaders he met appeared to leave Riyadh confident that their relations with the new king would be strong.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told reporters after his meeting that ties with Saudi Arabia seemed to be improving, Turkey's Hurriyet daily newspaper reported on Wednesday.

"My hopes increased that our bilateral relations will reach a much better place," he was quoted as saying.

But that did not lead him to be conciliatory towards Egypt, where he said political oppression might cause an explosion - exactly the sort of language that upsets Cairo.

Saudi Arabia shows signs of growing Independence from US as Yemen continues to deteriorate.

Saudi Arabia kept some of the details of its military action in Yemen from Washington until the last moment, US officials said, as the kingdom takes a more assertive regional role to compensate for perceived US disengagement.

The Middle East's top oil power told the United States weeks ago it was weighing action in Yemen but only informed Washington of the exact details just before Thursday's unprecedented air strikes against Iran-allied Houthi rebels, the officials said.

US President Barack Obama's Middle East policy increasingly relies on surrogates rather than direct US military involvement. He is training Syrian rebels to take on the government of President Bashar Assad and this week launched air strikes to back up Iraqi forces trying to retain the city of Tikrit.

To Obama's Republican critics, he is ceding the traditional US leadership role. The White House denies it is disengaging from the region and says it has been in close contact with the Saudis over their plans in recent days.

Although the Saudis spoke with top US officials as they debated an air assault in support of embattled Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, US officials acknowledged gaps in their knowledge of the kingdom's battle plans and objectives.

Asked when he was told by Saudi Arabia that it would take military action in Yemen, General Lloyd Austin, the head of the US military's Central Command, told a Senate hearing on Thursday he spoke with Saudi Arabia's chief of defense "right before they took action."

He added that he couldn't assess the likelihood of the campaign succeeding because he didn't know the "specific goals and objectives."

Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, said Riyadh consulted closely with Washington on Yemen - but ultimately decided it had to act quickly as Houthi rebels moved toward Hadi's last redoubt in the southern city of Aden.

"The concern was, if Aden falls, then what do you do?" al-Jubeir told a small group of reporters on Thursday. "The concern was that the situation was so dire you had to move."

Saudi Arabia's air strikes point towards an aspiration to defend its regional interests with less reliance on the US security umbrella that has long been the main thrust of Washington's relations with the oil-rich kingdom.

MORE ASSERTIVE

Riyadh has been growing increasingly assertive since early 2011, when Washington's reluctance to back former Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak in the face of mass protests led the Saudis to doubt its commitment to traditional Arab allies.

Obama's decision in summer 2013 not to bomb Syria after the use of poison gas there, coupled with its sudden announcement it had conducted secret nuclear talks with Riyadh's nemesis Iran, further alarmed the Saudis.

"If the operation is successful, I think we will see a major turn in Saudi foreign policy. It's going to be assertive, become more aggressive in dealing with the Iranian expansionism," said Mustafa Alani, an Iraqi security analyst with ties to the Saudi Interior Ministry.

The Obama administration is reluctant to get drawn into direct military action in another Arab conflict when it is already facing daunting challenges in Syria and Iraq.

The worsening Yemen conflict forced Washington to evacuate all remaining US special forces from the country, further undermining the US campaign of drone strikes against the most lethal branch of al Qaeda based there.

Sunni Saudi Arabia's intervention in Yemen is the latest front in a growing regional contest for power with Iran that is also playing out in Syria, where Tehran backs Assad's government, and Iraq, where Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias are playing a major role in fighting.

While US officials have downplayed the scope of the relationship between Iran and Yemen's Houthis, al-Jubeir said that members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian-backed Hezbollah are on the ground advising the Houthis.

One senior US official described Riyadh's operation as a "panic response" to the fast-deteriorating situation in Yemen that the Saudis feared could spill over its border.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested that the 10-nation Saudi-led coalition had been patched together so quickly that its effectiveness was in doubt.

The White House says it will not join directly in military operations in Yemen, but has set up a cell to coordinate US military and intelligence support to the operation. But US officials said they were sharing intelligence information on a limited basis so far.

US officials said they discussed the deteriorating situation in Yemen with Saudi Arabia over the course of recent weeks.

Secretary of State John Kerry discussed Yemen at length during a March 5 visit to Riyadh, but it was "not clear (the Saudis) had made any decisions about potential action at that point," said a senior US official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"We had been talking with the Saudis throughout the course of the last several days about what they were thinking and what type of support we could render with regards to their actions in Yemen," US National Security Council spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan said.

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My two-cents worth….

another “triumph” for pres hussein obama’s middle-east grand plan!  now iran controls four capitals:  sana, baghdad, beirut and damascus.  lybia is a failed state, not even worth mentioning.  turkey...almost a dictatorship.