The Arab Womb Is Not So Fertile after All, at Least in Israelby Y.K. Cherson |
Wishful thinking?
The Palestinian Authority's ever-changing demographic predictions don't add up to the demographic truth...
The “Arab demographic threat” is a boo the Left have been using to scare the Israeli public for decades. This terrible threat was also the main reason why Israel, in the opinion of the Left-wing politicians and journalists, should have urgently signed a peace treaty, Oslo accord, Camp David agreement and other treaties which invariably supposed that Israel must agree to all Arab demands in order to save at least something. The fear before that unbelievingly fertile “Arab womb” was also feeding the “peace process” and Western pressure on Israel; the West was sure it was “saving the Jews.”
However, these sinister forecasts failed time and time again. Starting with the report by Roberto Baki- the founder and chief of the Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel- he presented to Ben Gurion in November of 1944, and ending with the forecast the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics prepared in December 2014, the Arab- and Left –cherished date when Arabs will at last outnumber Jews in Israel was postponed NINE TIMES! First, it was in 1960. Then it became 1970, 1985, 1990, 200, 2010 and finally, 2016.
Let's compare the demographic forecasts of the Central Bureau of Statistics from the Palestinian Authority with the real Arab population counted by Arab statistics in various years.
In 2003, Palestinian sources triumphantly announced: that's it! By 2006, the number of Jews and Arabs in Israel including Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and Gaza will be the same: 5.1mln “souls.” By that same forecast, in 2010, the Arab population of Israel (with Judea and Samaria) and Gaza was expected to reach 6.2 mln, while Jews were expected to shrink to 5.7 mln. And by 2020, in both Israel and the areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority, there should be 8.2 mln Arabs- and only 6.4 mln Jews. Jews were doomed!
But Jews evidently did not know they were “doomed” and went on having children in surprising quantities, so in December of 2006, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics published another forecast, cancelling its previous one, and established that the population of Jews and Arabs would be the same only by 2010.
So in just three years, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics “killed” 500,000 Arabs. Moreover, in 2020, the Arab population should have dropped another 600,000 people: from 8.2 to 7.6 million.
But in 2010, the number of Jews and Arabs living in Israel, Judea and Samaria and Gaza was 5.7 mln against 5.47 mln respectively.
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics doubled its efforts and published a new forecast, which predicted that by 2014, the Arab population- this time without any doubt- would be the same as the Jewish population: 6.1 million Jews and an equal number of Arabs. At the same time, Arab statistics went on "killing" Arabs: now by 2020, the Arab population was reduced by one million people: it already looked more like a genocide!
Jews obediently followed PCBS´ orders and grew even more than predicted: to 6.2 mln people. But that “Arab womb” failed again: the Arab population in Israel, Judea and Samaria and Gaza was in 2014 only 5.9 million. And of them, 1.760 mln were residents of Gaza! Israel left Gaza almost 10 years ago, which makes including it in general Israeli statistics more than dubious. But it's not a secret that the demography of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics is not a science; it's a weapon.
In December of 2014, the PCBS published its "most correct" forecast that states that the number of Jewish Israelis and Palestinians living in Israel, the occupied West Bank and Gaza "will total about 6.42 million each by the end of 2016 provided that current growth rates remain constant," but that "the number of Palestinians in historical Palestine will total 7.14 million compared to 6.87 Jews by the end of 2020."
However, the birthrate among Jewish and Arab women makes this “most correct” forecast somewhat dubious again. In 2000, the total fertility rate (TFR) among Jewish women was 2.6 children per women, while among Arab women it was 4.74. Ten years later the TFR among Jews grew to 3.05- while in Arabs it fell to 3.35. In general terms, if in 2000 there were 2.23 Jewish newborns for every Arab newborn, in 2014, this correlation grew to 3.26.
Besides, the immigration of Jews from Europe together with the increase in number of the Israelis who return home after working or studying abroad also lead to an increase of the Jewish component in the population living on the territory situated between the Mediterranean Sea and Jordan River.
Looks like the prophecy so cherished by Arabs about how they will soon outnumber Jews on the territory of Eretz Israel will be postponed again; this time for long, and Israel does not have any need to make concessions to Arabs out of fear for the “Arab womb.”
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